If you plan to close on your mortgage in the next 20 days or so, you should consider locking your rate if you haven’t already. Here’s the outlook from Mortgage Market Guide.

Current Trend Direction: Lower

Risks favor: Locking, as 200-day Moving Average looms overhead

Current Price of FNMA 6.0% Bond: $99.91, -12bp

When it comes to the Bond Market, the rule is that good news is bad news and vice versa. So a lousy Durable Goods Report is bad economic news, which should be good for Bonds. But Bond prices have actually worsened because the 200-day MA ceiling is too difficult to break. Durable Goods was reported at -4.9%, which was lower than expectations of -3.5%.

At 1pm ET today, the US Treasury will auction off $18 Billion in Two-year Notes and this additional Bond supply could add selling pressure.

Technically, the 200-day MA is a powerful ceiling by itself, but the 25-day MA is also close by, making this dual ceiling of resistance too tough to break. A locking stance is best, as it appears bonds will drift lower towards support at the 50-day MA, about 25bp below present levels.

Information published by The Mortgage Market Guide

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