When a major swing like what’s happened over the past two days takes place, there’s always a risk of a “rebound” so to speak, where everyone says, “Whoops, we went to far, let’s swing it back the other way.” We saw that happen last summer when Jumbo rates went through the roof, although they haven’t come down to what they were last year, investors realized 8% on a 30-year fixed A-Paper jumbo was just a little far outside the realm of reality, and Jumbo rates came back down to more reasonable levels within a few weeks to months.

We’re in a situation now where the Fed is obviously seeing signs of a recession on the horizon, and decided to forgo fighting inflation risk and lower interest rates to help mitigate the damage. The fact that the Fed seems to be much more worried about recession than inflation at the moment suggests that mortgage rates may not bounce back up, at least not significantly, unless inflation fears really take hold. At this point, rates are, by far, the lowest we’ve seen in a while; as to what will happen in the future, only time will tell.

You should notice that the national average 30-year fixed interest rate is down to around 5.8% as of the time of this writing. That’s the lowest national rates have been since 2005 and represents a drop of 30 basis points (0.30%) over December 27th, 2007 data. Interest rates dropped so significantly because of the recent jobs report that showed private-sector jobs actually dropped over the holidays, which is pretty unusual as seasonal, holiday employment is usually pretty significant. In fact, unemployment rose from 4.7% in November, to 5% in December.

One of the most confusing things about mortgage rates is the fact that they tend to fluctuate in the opposite direction one would expect sometimes. A general rule of thumb to keep in mind about mortgage rates is this…

Rates will generally drop with negative news about the economy as money flows out of the stock market and into the bond market, and vice versa. However, there are certain exceptions to this, one being inflation. Rising inflation is certainly negative economic news, however, inflation triggers major fears in long-term investments such as mortgages, which causes investors to back out of bonds, leading to rising interest rates.

Things get a little more complicated when you’re looking at smaller fluctuations, but for most consumers, this is a great rule of thumb to understand.

If you’re interested in lowering your mortgage rate with a company you can trust, fill out the form to find out what you qualify for.